This week, “Domination: the act of being in control.”
With refuelling banned for 2010, this is the last time we get to do this for at least a year. A reminder, one final reminder, that qualifying is made up of 3 knockout sessions, with the fastest 10 drivers competing in Q3 with race fuel aboard while the slowest 10 declare their starting weight for the race separately. 20 drivers qualified, and assuming the man on pole gets to the finish, the other 19 surely can’t win. Drivers, cars, weights in kilos from the FIA:
1. Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes 658.5
2. Vettel Red Bull-Renault 663.0
3. Webber Red Bull-Renault 660.0
4. Barrichello Brawn-Mercedes 655.0
5. Button Brawn-Mercedes 657.0
6. Trulli Toyota 661.0
7. Kubica BMW-Sauber 654.5
8. Heidfeld BMW-Sauber 664.0
9. Rosberg Williams-Toyota 665.0
10. Buemi Toro Rosso-Ferrari 661.5
11. Raikkonen Ferrari 692.0
12. Kobayashi Toyota 694.3
13. Kovalainen McLaren-Mercedes 697.0
14. Nakajima Williams-Toyota 704.0
15. Alguersuari Toro Rosso-Ferrari 696.5
16. Alonso Renault 708.3
17. Liuzzi Force India-Mercedes 695.0
18. Sutil Force India-Mercedes 696.0
19. Grosjean Renault 710.8
20. Fisichella Ferrari 692.5
The weights show that Lewis Hamilton is on pole, in a car fuelled roughly as far as Mark Webber’s Red Bull and only a couple of laps lighter than Sebastian Vettel’s. The weights don’t show exactly how far ahead the outgoing world champion is; for that, we must refer to the Q3 lap times:
Hamilton – 1:40.948
Vettel – 1:41.615
Webber – 1:41.726
Barrichello – 1:41.786
Miles, then.
That a McLaren is on pole isn’t a surprise in itself. They were widely tipped for victory before the cars ever turned a wheel, and the pace shown by both Hamilton and Heikki Kovalainen yesterday was more than quick enough to make those tips look good. The size of the gap, though, has taken everybody by surprise, including the men in silver. Had they known for a second that pole by the thick end of 7 tenths was on the cards, the car would have been fuelled more heavily, giving a strategic advantage to go with their speed. It wasn’t, but that shouldn’t matter.
At no point in qualifying did anyone look like a match for Hamilton, but the men closest at all times were the Red Bull drivers, for whom the podium looks likely but the top step looks out of reach. Best of the rest isn’t what any of the teams aspire to, but this weekend it’s all that’s on offer, and the Austrian outfit have a firm claim on the position that only Brawn and one Toyota have seriously threatened to snatch away. Barrichello outqualified Button again but with a lap less fuel on board this time around, and with the incoming champion complaining of massive vibrations through the steering wheel in Q3. Either of the Brawn drivers could end up sneaking onto the podium tomorrow, Button the heavier and generally slightly more impressive of the two all weekend until it mattered, but starting behind the heavier Red Bulls puts them at an immediate disadvantage.
Jarno Trulli, without a 2010 drive at present for reasons that aren’t immediately apparent, did his standard excellent job in qualifying and was a contender for the front row in Q3 before being shuffled back to P6. His pace and his fuel load are comparable to the cars immediately ahead on the grid, and the Italian has been combative on Sunday afternoons of late – positively pugilistic at times, though not always while still inside a racing car, bless him – so his target must be to get involved in the Red Bull/Brawn battle directly ahead. He’ll be relieved to note that Adrian Sutil is nowhere near him this weekend, the Force India falling away in Q1 having looked moderately competitive through free practice.
BMW say farewell to Formula One this weekend, though the team may yet be on the 2010 grid under new ownership and the engine department could be swallowed up by McLaren, rumours suggesting that the Woking outfit will be fully independent in the near future. Kubica blew yet another powerplant in practice but both he and Heidfeld are set to give their squad a points-scoring send off, Quick Nick’s heavier fuel load suggesting an inter-team squabble could be on the cards tomorrow. Nick is another one who should be secured for next season by now but isn’t, while Kubica is off to Renault, who can’t get away from 2009 quickly enough.
Romain Grosjean, whose performance has been that of a slower, more erratic version of this blog’s favourite Brazilian, wins the No Stops Til Christmas award and absolutely nothing else for another underwhelming showing, a spin in Q1 being the highlight. In mitigation, he can point to comments made by his superstar teammate.
Fernando Alonso says, and you might struggle to argue against this, that the R29 is currently the worst car in Formula One, and this weekend not even he could propel it to a position any more advanced than 16th. He too has fuelled up, the plan for tomorrow being to tool around for as long as possible, stop once and see how much ground can be made by simply stopping later than those around. He’ll be aided in that task by Bridgestone, who’ve brought their soft and medium compounds to this race and are having no trouble at all with either of them.
The same strategy has been adopted by everyone outside of the top 10, including the potential spoilers of the flying Finns with their KERS buttons and Kobayashi with his tendency towards homicidal swerving. Of those, the man with the biggest chance of making headway is Kovalainen, who would surely have been right in amongst it at the front had his gearbox not broken in Q2. He wasn’t because it did, and the additional pain of a grid penalty for a gearbox change leaves Heikki starting 18th in the fastest car on the grid. His race will be one to keep an eye on; nobody is better placed than Cakey to demonstrate whether it’s possible to overtake on this new layout.
It’ll be amazing if anyone at the very front gets to make the same demonstration. With the polesitter in the weekend’s quickest car and with a KERS button to boot, there is no reason to suggest that the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will fall to anyone other than Lewis Hamilton, or that he should be anything less than comfortable all afternoon.
